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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."